Video lessons in English
Ival teaches every lesson in English. Each module comes with the slide deck used in it.
Why this skill matters
A system that wins 50% of the time has roughly a one-in-two chance of hitting six losses in a row within 100 trades. If you do not expect that, you abandon a sound system just when it is behaving normally. And thirty winning trades on a screenshot prove very little.
Over 4 sessions you learn the statistics a trader actually needs, on your own trade data, in Google Sheets. No programming. Statistics here is for judging a system, not for predicting price.
What you will be able to do
- Calculate your system's expectancy and know how far to trust it.
- Know how long a losing streak is normal for your system.
- Choose your risk per trade from simulation rather than instinct.
- Spot the traps that make a backtest look good on paper and lose in a live account.
The 4 sessions
- Probability and expectancy
Why win rate on its own tells you nothing. - Variance, losing streaks and drawdown
How many losses in a row are normal for your system. - Sample size
How many trades you need before trusting a system, or before sizing up. - Monte Carlo and backtesting traps
Setting risk by the bad-case scenario, and checking for errors before real money goes in.
This course is the prerequisite for both system programmes, Positive Expectancy and Trading System Design, unless you pass the 15-question entry test. It is also recommended before Risk Management.